A recently released inflation report has led to a significant shift in expectations regarding the Fed’s interest rate cut schedule. The March inflation report caused a major shift in forecasts by sell-side banks and other Fed watchers, according to Wall Street Journal reporter Nick Timiraos.
Previously, many people predicted that interest rates would be cut as early as June. But now the consensus has changed and many think the first rate cut will not happen until the third quarter of this year. There has also been a significant shift towards expectations of just one or two rate cuts this year.
Here’s a look at the major banks’ new expectations for the first interest rate cut and the total amount of interest rate cuts in 2024:
- Bank of America: December, 25 Basis Points
- Barclays: September, 25 Basis Points
- BNPP: July, 50 Basis Points
- Citigroup: June, 125 Basis Points
- Deutsche Bank: December, 25 Basis Points
- Evercore ISI: July, 50 Basis Points
- Goldman Sachs: July, 50 Basis Points
- HSBC: June, 75 Basis Points
- Jefferies: June, 75 Basis Points
- JP Morgan: July, 75 Basis Points
- LH Meyer: September, 50 Basis Points
- Mizuho: Not in 2024, 0 Basis Points
- Morgan Stanley: June, 100 Basis Points
- MUFG: June, 125 Basis Points
- Nomura: July, 50 Basis Points
- Oxford Economics: June, 75 Basis Points
- RBC: Range, 25 Basis Points
- TD Securities: September, 50 Basis Points
- UBS: September, 50 Basis Points
- Wells Fargo: September, 50 Basis Points
*This is not investment advice.